Stacked LSTM-GRU Long-Term Forecasting Model for Indonesian Islamic Banks

Yayat Sujatna; Adhitio Satyo Bayangkari Karno; Widi Hastomo; Nia Yuningsih; Dody Arif; Sri Setya Handayani; Aqwam Rosadi Kardian; Ire Puspa Wardhani; L.M Rasdi Rere

doi:10.17977/um018v6i22023p215-250

Stacked LSTM-GRU Long-Term Forecasting Model for Indonesian Islamic Banks

Yayat Sujatna, Adhitio Satyo Bayangkari Karno, Widi Hastomo, Nia Yuningsih, Dody Arif, Sri Setya Handayani, Aqwam Rosadi Kardian, Ire Puspa Wardhani, L.M Rasdi Rere

Abstract

The development of the Islamic banking industry in Indonesia has become a significant concern in recent years, with rapid growth in the number of banks operating based on Sharia principles. To face emerging challenges and opportunities, a deep understanding of the long-term financial behavior of Islamic banks is becoming increasingly important. This study aims to predict the share price of PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk, over 28 days using the LSTM-GRU stack. The observation stage includes importing the dataset, data separation, model variations, the training process, output, and evaluation. Observations were conducted using 10 model variations from 4 stacks of LSTM and GRU. Each model performs the training process in four epochs (200, 500, 750, and 1000). The results of observations in this study show that long-term predictions (28 days ahead) using four stacks of LSTM-GRU and daily training accumulation techniques produce better accuracy than the general method (using multiple outputs). From the observations we have made for predictions for the next 28 days, the model with the LGLG stack arrangement (LSTM-GRU-LSTM-GRU) produces the best accuracy at epoch 750 with an MSE LSTM-GRU 63.43762863. This study will undoubtedly continue in order to achieve even better precision, either by utilizing a new design or by further improving the technology we are now employing.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17977/um018v6i22023p215-250