Implementation of Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting in Jember District

Abstract

The increase in population and various kinds of human activities in the world has made it possible for changes to increase the need for electrical power with demand that is not the same at any time. Based on this description, this research will propose research on the theme of electricity load forecasting as a preventive measure to determine future electricity load needs. Research was assisted using MATLAB data processing software to process research data. Three forecasting models were carried out, namely day, night and day-night conditions. From these three forecasting models, parameters such as epoch, number of input layers, number of hidden layers, activation function, and etc. The data is divided into two parts, training data and test data with a ratio of 70: 30. Test results using the backpropagation artificial neural network method show the highest MSE values for the three forecasting models, day, night, and day-night, are, 0.0039, 0.0041, and 0.002 while the lowest MSE values were in the three models are, 6.77E-04, 0.001, and 0.0011.