Pemanfaatan Pemodelan Machine Learning dalam Memprediksi Parameter Kualitas Udara Nitrogen Dioksida (NO 2 ) Berdasarkan Algoritma Extra Trees Regression di DKI Jakarta

Muhammad Aulia Zikri; I Wayan Jyesta Jaya Taruna; Juang Merdeka; Agung Hari Saputra

doi:10.17977/um0260v7i22023p031

Pemanfaatan Pemodelan Machine Learning dalam Memprediksi Parameter Kualitas Udara Nitrogen Dioksida (NO₂) Berdasarkan Algoritma Extra Trees Regression di DKI Jakarta

Muhammad Aulia Zikri, I Wayan Jyesta Jaya Taruna, Juang Merdeka, Agung Hari Saputra

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengkaji kualitas udara di DKI Jakarta, terutama pada parameter Nitrogen Dioksida (NO2) dengan memanfaatkan model Extra Trees Regression untuk memprediksi indeks NO2. Penelitian menggunakan data time series NO2 tahun 2022, yang menunjukkan tidak adanya tren jangka panjang yang signifikan serta mengindikasikan data bersifat stasioner dan acak. Analisis periodogram, histogram, dan plot Q-Q menunjukkan distribusi normal dengan penyimpangan minor. Tidak ditemukan autokorelasi yang signifikan antara data aktual NO2 dan data model, menandakan kemungkinan adanya white noise. Evaluasi model dengan parameter seperti MASE, MAE, RMSE, MAPE, SMAPE, dan R2 menunjukkan kinerja model yang baik. Nilai R2 yang mencapai 73.14% menandakan kemampuan model dalam menjelaskan variabilitas data aktual. Meskipun model Extra Trees Regression mengikuti pola musiman, terdapat ketidaksesuaian antara nilai aktual dan prediksi di beberapa titik. Hal ini menandakan adanya potensi overfitting atau kesulitan dalam menangkap pola data secara spesifik. Penelitian ini memberikan informasi pemodelan yang cocok untuk memprediksi kualitas udara di DKI Jakarta.

Keywords

Kualitas Udara, Nitrogen Dioksida (NO2), Extra Trees Regression, Time Series

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17977/um0260v7i22023p031